August 31, 2025
Dear Stravera Capital LPs,
This letter serves as an introduction for all current and future investors in Stravera discussing our investment strategy, philosophy, and positioning in the Bitcoin Treasury Landscape.
Each month I will release a high level overview of our holdings and market outlook. These letters will be supplemented with quarterly performance reports with detailed holdings initially released privately to our LPs, then released publicly two weeks following the close of the quarter.
Topics
Late Cycle, Asymmetric Positioning
Positioning & Bubble Indicators
Models & Thoughts on TA
Portfolio & Conclusion
Late Cycle, Asymmetric Positioning
When I think of BTC’s fair value, I simply believe it to be much much higher in price than it is now. The question then becomes how fast will BTC appreciate, and when will the price appreciation occur? No one can know these things for certain, but we can absolutely assign probabilities and take calculated risks in a portfolio to capitalize on likely price paths.
I myself, and many others reading this letter, have likely used BTC treasuries and their derivatives markets to take leverage on BTC. Historically there have been significant mispricings in the traditional equities markets surrounding BTC securities. That being said, my job is to figure out how to use all the tools in the public markets to place bets with the most asymmetric upside while managing the risk of underperforming BTC. When an investor takes on any form of leverage, whether that be margin, allocating to a BTC Treasury, or buying/selling options contracts, they run the risk of underperforming BTC if the market does not move in their favor.
The future is inherently uncertain and I strive to construct a portfolio with the most asymmetric exposure to Bitcoin’s abrupt upside, while maintaining the highest expected return across all possible paths of BTC and their relative probabilities over the next 12 months.
Positioning & Bubble Indicators
My current positioning has to do with capturing levered upside over the next 6 months into what may be euphoric mania with global liquidity peaking into a rate cutting cycle. The key moving forward as we deviate from the power law floor is protecting capital and having a stash of cash which can be opportunistically deployed.
I have compiled a brief list of some of the signals which I am actively monitoring to help determine both the exits from our long options positions and for potential trimming into cash from BTC.
– Standard Deviations above the Power Trend
– BTC Backed Preferred Equity/Debt Credit Spreads
– Liquidity Cycles
– BTC Search Interest
– Blended MNAV multiples across BTC Treasuries
– Perpetual Futures Funding Rates
– Put/Call Skew in BTC and BTC ETF Options Markets
For the time being, the market remains cool. The largest risk I see to a leveraged position is a slow climb in price, or extended chop through 2025 followed by an unpredictable, violent move up in 2026. Both of these scenarios I deem less likely than a continuation of the current bull market through the rest of the fall. These potential scenarios are some of the reasons why I am long a majority call spreads instead of naked long calls here.
Models & Thoughts on TA
Models are useful, but by no means the ‘end all, be all’ for BTC price. Specifically I don’t use TA in the short timeframes or really much TA at all for that matter. I construct options spreads and long call positions that align with BTC seasonality and macro economic tailwinds. Furthermore, the Bitcoin power law provides a nice benchmark for Bitcoin’s average annual growth rate, and serves as a tool to assess the probability that BTC is overheated vs. oversold and the probabilities of how high BTC could move during exponential expansion.
Portfolio & Conclusion
I am personally invested in Stravera Capital’s Fund #1 as a GP, which is the same blended investment as the rest of our LPs. The entire purpose of this fund is to extend the actively managed portion of my BTC portfolio for other investors.
If BTC moves hard to the upside in line with liquidity, rate cuts, and seasonality, I am positioned to outperform BTC, even at modest BTC prices of 125-140k. BTC price appreciation above and beyond this range will just be a cherry on top. The call spreads I have constructed with roughly 12% of the portfolio will serve as this leverage. The rest of the portfolio has a blend of short, short dated calls which I will manage according to volatility and price. As many know I am a Strategy preferred stock aficionado, and so long as STRF trades below its fair value, I will continue to arbitrage the dividend using leverage to capture the ex-dividend dates.
By mid-September we will have a real-time audited performance tracking dashboard of the fund’s entire portfolio on our website, StraveraCapital.com. Our goal is to position alongside BTC treasuries companies in the capital markets. We offer direct Bitcoin leverage and exposure to investors in an active manner. Unlike traditional Bitcoin Treasuries, this hedge fund structure enables investors to avoid paying a premium above NAV or being locked into long leverage when the market becomes overheated.
I will continue to publish these reports and additional research for all investors looking to make money in the public markets, outperforming Bitcoin’s CAGR while corporate Bitcoin adoption ramps up and the Bitcoin credit market matures.
Sincerely,
Dan Hillery
Chief Investment Officer
Stravera Capital